The class of mapping functions of Spencer (Ann. Math. 42:614-63 2, 1941) (i) w - f(z) = z sub p + a sub p+1 z p+1 + sub a sub p+2 sub z p+2 ..., regular in the unit circle (z) < 1, is considered which transform the unit circle into a Riemann surface R over the w-plane so that, for each r > 0, the area of the sheets of R covering the circle (w) < r does not exceed p pi r squared. These functions are called mean p-valent, and mean univalent when p = 1. The analytic functions...

Topics: DTIC Archive, GARABEDIAN, P. R., ROYDEN, H. L., STANFORD UNIV CA APPLIED MATHEMATICS AND STATISTICS...

Sea state and wave height, direction, and frequency of occurrence were observed for the localities of Carquinez Straits, East Brothers Island, Alcatraz Island, and Hunters Point. Wave data are also tabulated for the area outside the Bay. Although these data are only estimates, they are believed sufficiently accurate to indicate general orders of magnitude.

Topics: DTIC Archive, Johnson, J. W., CALIFORNIA UNIV BERKELEY WAVE RESEARCHLAB, *OCEAN WAVES, *SAN...

A method is given for the numerical solution of the partial differential equation governing heat flow in an infinite plate. The solution, obtained with appropriate boundary conditions, permits an estimation of the temperature of the outer shell of a high-velocity projectile during of the variation in thermal properties of steel over the temperature range encountered. At the inner surface, the boundary condition was taken to be that of heat transfer across the surface, the boundary condition...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Eddy, R. P., NAVAL ORDNANCE LAB WHITE OAK MD, *EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN, *HEAT TRANSFER,...

Research was conducted which indicates the agreement that can b e expected between theoretical predictions and several sets of carefully made experimental measurements. The estimated error in the experimental value of gain assigned to a thin lambda/2 resonant slot in a ground plane was + or - 0.3 db, and the assigned value of gain differed by less than 0.1 db from the theoretical value. The estimated error in gain assigned to a wave guide opening into a ground plane was + or - 0.5 db, and the...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Fagan, Peter, NORTHEASTERN UNIV BOSTON MA ELECTRONICS RESEARCH LAB, *ANTENNA...

Questionaires and polygraph test administered to paratroops dur ing the progress of the Desert Rock exercise indicated that the troopers' factual information about AW, especially that concerning self-protection, increased sharply following their indoctrination, and remained essentially the same during the exercise. Anticipation of the maneuver and practical experience were believed to aid in the retention. The participants' self-confidence in their ability to sustain both conventional and...

Topics: DTIC Archive, BORDES, PETER A., FINAN, JOHN L., GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIV ALEXANDRIA VA HUMAN...

Numerical results have been obtained for a range of Mach numbers between 1.5 and 4.5, and comparisons made with experimental data. The estimated results are in good agreement with experimental data, but similar studies on other missiles will have to be made before it can be ascertained that the method of analysis is fully reliable. Of the drag components for the bare body, the contribution of the base pressure seems to be subject to the greatest uncertainty. In the case of wind-tunnel tests,...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Halbmillion, V., NAVAL ORDNANCE LAB WHITE OAK MD, *PROJECTILES, *SUPERSONIC...

Preliminary investigations of power spectrum estimates for sign al strength and corresponding sea-state time fluctuations are reported for an overwater path between 2 drilling platforms off Grand Island, Louisiana. The transmitters were located on the seaward drilling platform at heights of either 15 or 38 ft mean sea level. The receivers were on the shoreward platform at heights of either 14 or 53 ft mean sea level. The platforms were 5027 ft apart and 8 mi off shore. Measurements were made...

Topics: DTIC Archive, McKune, William J., Smith, H. W., TEXAS UNIV AT AUSTIN ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING...

Tables are presented to facilitate the computations involved in estimating the average stimulus necessary to affect the objects tested. The procedure for using the tables is illustrated by examples, and the requirement of a normal or near normal distribution of the critical stimuli is discussed. The tables also furnish the necessary statistics for making the usual tests for significance and estimates of confidence intervals and tolerance intervals.

Topics: DTIC Archive, CHURCHMAN,C.W., WAYNE ENGINEERING RESEARCH INST DETROIT MICH, COMPUTATIONS,...

Experimental results were used to relate the ordinate and wave- wise approaches to the analysis of ocean-wave records for general wave height on the basis of a narrow-spectrum theory. The theory assumed that the ocean-wave history is a Gaussian random process and that the time history and envelope follow a Rayleigh distribution. Rayleigh- and y-type distributions of measured wave heights were compared; the agreement between the envelope and estimated wave heights indicated that the wave records...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Putz, R. R., CALIFORNIA UNIV BERKELEY WAVE RESEARCH LAB, *OCEAN WAVES, DISPERSING,...

A brief discussion is presented of the influence of a submarine hull on the theoretical estimates (AD-14 874) of the direction and magnitude of total sound intensities. Indications within reasonable limits were concluded to be feasible for measurements by an intensity detector located perpendicular to and several feet from the deck of a submarine under typical operating conditions.

Topics: DTIC Archive, Karal, F. C., MAGNOLIA PETROLEUM CO DALLAS TX, *SUBMARINE HULLS, *ACOUSTIC...

The small-deflection theory of plates under lateral loads and the laws of the theory of plastic deformations are used in the analysis instead of elastic stress-strain relationships. Four approximate methods are applied to obtain numerical results for a simply supported, uniformly loaded plate. The Sokolovsky method reduces the equations relating the moments, curvatures, and plate loads to 2 simultaneous first-order nonlinear differential equations which are solved numerical integration. The...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Merckx, Kenneth, STANFORD UNIV CA, *PLASTIC DEFORMATION, *PLATES, *BENDING MOMENTS,...

The Prot method was applied to an unaged iron, an SAE 2340 steel, and a 14-B-50 boron steel. The modified theory, in which the exponent n was different for different metals, resulted in better agreement with conventional fatigue data. The endurance limits for the unaged iron were 16 to 25% higher than the values obtained by the conventional method. Better results were obtained with a value n = 0.371 than were obtained with n = 0.5. For the ferrous metals, n was reasonably close to 0.5 (0.37...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Corten, H. T., Dimoff, Todor, Dolan, T. J., Sugi, Masaki, ILLINOIS UNIV AT URBANA...

Methods are being developed to improve the quality of the bathy thermograph prints and to eliminate hand copying of multiple prints and the expense of reprinting on specific orders. In the plan being considered, the grid and slide will be printed on a negative and then contacted on double-coated photographic paper. The log sheet information will be copied by hand once per slide on a form to be used as a master for contact printing on the reverse side of the photographic paper. The masters would...

Topics: DTIC Archive, WOODS HOLE OCEANOGRAPHIC INSTITUTION MA, *HYDROGRAPHIC SURVEYING, *BATHYTHERMOGRAPH...

Experiments performed at the levels x1, x2, ... lead to the obtaining of observations yi=a+bx+i(i=1,2,...), the synbol being the independent N(O,2) random variables, and a and B the unknown linear regression coefficients. Designs of experiments for estimating are given which are based on certain optimum criteria in both the nonsequential and sequential cases. Properties of both the nonsequential and sequential estimates tN are discussed, including in the nonsequential case of approximation to...

Topics: DTIC Archive, NORTH CAROLINA UNIV AT CHAPEL HILL DEPT OF STATISTICS, *COEFFICIENTS, SEQUENCES,...

Heat flux tests were conducted with double-walled stainless-steel boiler tubes in a steam generator. The outside of the inner tube was grooved, and the tube was expanded to fit into the inner tube to effect a tight heat transfer bond. Helium in the grooves served as a leak detector system. Heat was transferred at fluxes as high as 450,000 Btu/hr/sq ft from liquid alkali metal on the tube side to water on the shell side at pressure from 113 to 1203 psia. A single walled tube was also tested...

Topics: DTIC Archive, KING, E. C., ANDREWS, R. C., MINE SAFETY APPLIANCES CO CALLERY PA, *STEAM, *LIQUID...

The dependence of various functionals on their domain of definition is discussed. The functionals are defined by certain extremum problems. The methods of transplanting extremum functions and of variation are applied to the problem of utilizing the knowledge of the functional for a few special domains to obtain knowledge about the same functional in the general case. Functionals such as torsional rigidity, virtual mass, outer conformal radius, and electrostatic capacity are treated. A...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Polya, G., Schiffer, M., Helfenstein, Heinz, STANFORD UNIV CA APPLIED MATHEMATICS AND...

A number of statistical models, underlying the methods used in the estimation of the sizes and other parameters of animal population, are set up. The relevant estimation equations are given, with their variances and covariances. For the most part, the theory is designed for large populations. An effort was made to have the models conform as closely as possible to the practices of animal sampling. The complexities of estimating the birth, death, emigration, and immigration rates indicate that it...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Chapman, Douglas G., WASHINGTON UNIV SEATTLE LAB OF STATISTICAL RESEARCH,...

The asymptotic approximation method was applied to the calculation of normal modes of elastic waves in a solid medium. The approximations were based on the assumption that the properties of the medium are slowly varying functions of one coordinate in the sense of a small relative variation within a wave length. A comparison of dispersion curves computed by the approximate theory with those computed by the exact theory for a medium of 2 or 3 homogeneous layers indicated that the approximate...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Haskell, Norman A., AIR FORCE CAMBRIDGE RESEARCH LABS HANSCOM AFB MA, *LAMINATES,...

Topics: DTIC Archive, EPSTEIN, BENJAMIN, WAYNE STATE UNIV DETROIT MI, *STATISTICAL PROCESSES, ESTIMATES,...

Flight Dynamics Lab., Wright Air Development Div., Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio. MANEUVER LOAD DATA FROM C-130 AIRCRAFT, by Lawrence Phillips. Rept. for Structural Design Criteria. Mar 61, 17p. incl. illus. tables. (Proj. 1367) (WADD TN 61-44)Unclassified report DESCRIPTORS: Maneuverability, *Transport planes, Flight testing, Structures, Load distribution, Fatigue (Mechanics), Design. Open-ended Terms: C-130. Structural flight load data are presented from C-130A and B aircraft...

Topics: DTIC Archive, PHILLIPS, LAWRENCE, AERONAUTICAL SYSTEMS DIV WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH FLIGHT CONTROL...

Applied Mathematics and S atistics Lab., Stanford U., Calif. TREND ELIMINATION BY MOVING-AVERAGE AND VARIATEDIFFERENCE FILTERS, by J. Durbin. 24 Aug 61, 20p. 7 refs. (Technical rept. no. 9) (Grant DA-ORD-43) (AROD rept. no. 2025:8) Uncla sifie report No automatic release to Foreign Nationals. D SCRIPTORS: ( tatistical analysis, *Statis tical processes, *Lea t squares method Polynomials, Operator (Mathematics), Topology, Fourier analysis, Series.) Identifiers: Filters (Mathematics). The use of a...

Topics: DTIC Archive, MOORE, L F, ABERDEEN PROVING GROUND MD, *GUN SIGHTS, *SMALL ARMS, APPLIED...

During the summer of 1961, two groups of students at the Fleet Anti-Submarine Warfare School, San Diego, were tested on their ability to make target axis angle estimates from simulated materials utilizing the angular categories in the Naval Electronics Laboratory classification system. One group received a 30 minute familiarization training period while the other was simply introduced to the task prior to testing. It is concluded that neither training nor the scope quadrant in which the...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Aiken, E G, BUREAU OF NAVAL PERSONNEL WASHINGTON DC, *NAVAL PERSONNEL,...

This paper reviews and applies certain results concerning the matrix pseudoinverse to the general theory of estimable functions and minimal variance estimates. The paper is divided into two sections. The first section reviews and extends certain known results concerning the matrix pseudoinverse. This section is essentially non statistical. The second section uses results in the first section to state and prove a generalized version of the Gauss-Markoff Theorem concerning unbiased linear...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Price, C M, AEROSPACE CORP EL SEGUNDO CA, *ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE, PARAMETERS,...

The primary objective was to provide data and techniques which will permit ODDR+E to better appraise development cost estimates on future weapon systems. The initial scope was defined in three parts: (1) A survey and evaluation of cost estimating techniques already developed and sources of pertinent historical data; (2) Collection and analysis of past data; development of parametric estimating relationships; and (3) A plan for enhancing future ODDR+E capability through data collection and...

Topics: DTIC Archive, MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS CORP CAMBRIDGE MA, *WEAPON SYSTEMS, *COST ESTIMATES, MATHEMATICAL...

Estimation (filtering) theory for dynamical sys tems is reviewed. Emphasis is on time varying systems and nonstationary stochastic processes. The basic ideas for linear systems are presented in an intuitive manner using time domain tech niques and the state variable concept. Both continuous and discrete time systems are dis cussed. A control problem and the principle of least squares curve fitting are related to the basic estimation problem. In addition to the presentation of fundamental...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Schweppe, Fred C, MASSACHUSETTS INST OF TECH LEXINGTON LINCOLN LAB, *DYNAMICS,...

A new procedure is described for determining that frequency at which the power spectrum of a signal has its absolute peak. The salient feature of the procedure is that it does not explicitly involve the estimation of the power spectrum of the signal itself. Specifically, it is shown that the limit of the iterated normalized autocorrelation of a function f(t) is a pure cosine wave whose frequency corresponds to the location of the maximum energy density in the spectrum of f(t). Furthermore, if...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Kleinrock, L, MASSACHUSETTS INST OF TECH LEXINGTON LINCOLN LAB, *ELECTROMAGNETIC...

Cumulative survival, failure, or detection probabilities cannot, in general, be precisely estimated from truncated samples if only data grouped in sucessive time internals is available. Mathematical models of the failure rate and abort rate within the time intervals are postulated from which estimates may be obtained from grouped data when the models are valid. An easily calculable approximation formula can be used in the earlier time intervals where the sample size is relatively large. This...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Spitz, H, CENTER FOR NAVAL ANALYSES ARLINGTON VA, *PROBABILITY, ABORT, COMPUTATIONS,...

Four studies of factors influencing accuracy as well as magnitude and direction of constant bias in angular estimation are reported. The parameters investigated were: method of presenting stimuli and mode of subject's response. Ambiguities in the results of previous similar investigations are discussed, and previous results compared with those obtained in the present study. It was found that subjects could be classified as either high- or low-accuracy in angular estimation. The highaccuracy...

Topics: DTIC Archive, MITRE CORP BEDFORD MA, *DECISION MAKING, *HUMAN FACTORS ENGINEERING, ACCURACY,...

A detailed description and comparison is given of thermodynamic cycles suitable for use in space for the liquefaction and reliquefaction of He, H2, N2, F2 and O2 at rates from 1 lb/ day to 1000 lbs/day. A survey is presented of the mode of operation, performance and efficiency of the following cycles: cascaded compressed vapor cycles, systems using Joule-Thomson cooling only, system using expansion engines, Stirling cycle systems, Taconis cycle systems and miscellaneous systems. Tables and...

Topics: DTIC Archive, MALAKER LABS INC HIGH BRIDGE NJ, *LIQUEFIED GASES, *SPACECRAFT, COMPARISON,...

ACE (automated cost estimates) is a means of forecasting research and development and engineering services cost and direct manhours. It is a computer application employing mathematical methods of calculating various cost and DMH (direct manhour expenditure for each expression of time) relationships and behavior trends, automatically selecting the network that will produce the best calculated forecast based upon historical data.

Topics: DTIC Archive, ARMY MISSILE COMMAND REDSTONE ARSENAL AL, *COST ESTIMATES, *ENGINEERING, *RESEARCH...

An effort was made to obtain a parametric estimate of the radar cross section of the ionized wake of a hypersonic body as a function of aspect angle, for a wide range of frequencies and values of the physical parameters involved. The solution is expressed as the solution to Maxwell's equations for an inhomogeneous medium. The following conclusions are drawn: (1) The cross section is proportional to the square to the electron density at the origin. (2) The cross section is insensitive to the...

Topics: DTIC Archive, BENDIX CORP ANN ARBOR MI BENDIX SYSTEMS DIV, *HYPERSONIC CHARACTERISTICS, HYPERSONIC...

This report contains a series of studies investigating the abilities of subjects to revise probability estimates on the basis of new information. These studies show that subjects' probability estimates are reliable, but deviate considerably from posterior probabilities calculated from Bayes's theorem. These deviations are almost always in the conservative direction, i.e., low Bayesian probabilities are overestimated, and high ones are underestimated. Only when each datum is very ambiguous do...

Topics: DTIC Archive, MICHIGAN UNIV ANN ARBOR ENGINEERING PSYCHOLOGY LAB, *DECISION MAKING, *PROBABILITY,...

The preparation of unsolicited research proposals is an art form peculiar to the R and D or Gilded Age. There are four stages in the search for research support: reconnaissance and target identification; contact; proposal writing and submission; and, patient waiting. Target identification is a sort of technical intelligence. A list of source documents for determining the research interests of potential fund sources is given; the search should not end until the lowest level in an agency who can...

Topics: DTIC Archive, AIR FORCE OFFICE OF SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH BOLLING AFB DC, *RESEARCH MANAGEMENT,...

The theory of reliability estimation developed in previous reports (WADD TR61-53, ML-TDR-64-300) has been applied to three types of aircraft, a civilian transport, a heavy bomber and a fighter designed by current procedures, for which operational records, multiple structural tests and records of service experience are available. Failure rates for critical ultimate load conditions have been evaluated on the basis of data obtained from various sources and compared with service experience. Lives...

Topics: DTIC Archive, COLUMBIA UNIV NEW YORK, *STRUCTURAL ENGINEERING, BOMBER AIRCRAFT, COMMERCIAL...

It is the purpose in this note to discuss three of the many approaches to seismic array processing from the theoretical point of view. The three are: (1) maximumlikelihood processing, (2) the minimum-variance, unbiased estimator (MVU) approach used by Levin, and (3) multichannel Wiener filtering. A feature common to these techniques is the formation of a single output waveform which serves as an estimator of the unknown signal coming from a fixed direction. We refer to such an output as a...

Topics: DTIC Archive, MASSACHUSETTS INST OF TECH LEXINGTON LINCOLN LAB, *ARRAYS, COMPARISON, DATA...

The power spectrum of a zero-mean stationary Gaussian random process is assumed to be known except for one or more parameters which are to be estimated from an observation of the process during a finite time interval. The approximation is introduced that the coefficients of the Fourier series expansion of a realization of long-time duration are uncorrelated. Based on this approximation maximum likelihood estimates are derived and fundamental limits on the variances attainable are found by...

Topics: DTIC Archive, MASSACHUSETTS INST OF TECH LEXINGTON LINCOLN LAB, *INFORMATION THEORY, ADDITION,...

The report describes an experimental investigation of the heave stability and heave damping characteristics in hovering flight of an electrically powered model Ground Effect Machine, arranged firstly with a thick annular jet and, secondly, as a simple plenum chamber. The lift, rise height and power relationship were determined and the fan characteristics of the thick annular jet were measured. Air was bled from and fed into the air cushion to evaluate the GEM's change in lift. Finally, the...

Topics: DTIC Archive, WALKER (NORMAN K) ASSOCIATES INC GAITHERSBURG MD, *ANNULAR NOZZLES, AIR,...

The technique described presents a method to express uncertainty quantitatively in advanced system cost estimates. In particular, the technique suggests the employment of subjective probability distributions, which describe the uncertainty in each system element, to determine an approximate distribution for total system cost. A 7090 program was written to perform the computational operations.

Topics: DTIC Archive, MITRE CORP BEDFORD MA, *COST ESTIMATES, UNCERTAINTY, COMPUTATIONS, COSTS, COMPUTER...

The report embodies the latest results of a continuing research effort directed toward the development of management guidelines, standards, and techniques in the field of computer programming. The report is focused upon the statistical analysis of 74 completed computer programming jobs in terms of their resource-costs and related variables, e.g., man months, computer hours. The primary results are: indices of job difficulty, job type, development environment, and job uniqueness; a 'costliness'...

Topics: DTIC Archive, SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT CORP SANTA MONICA CA, *COMPUTER PROGRAMMING, COMPOSITE MATERIALS,...

Atomic transition probabilities for about 4,000 spectral lines of the first ten elements, based on all available literature sources, are critically compiled. The data are presented in separate tables for each element and stage of ionization. For each ion the transitions are arranged according to multiplets, supermultiplets, transition arrays, and increasing quantum numbers. Allowed and forbidden transitions are listed separately. For each line the transition probability for spontaneous...

Topics: DTIC Archive, NATIONAL BUREAU OF STANDARDS WASHINGTON DC INST FOR BASIC STANDARDS, *ELECTRON...

The report considers the general problem of network reliability, the reliability analysis of the ARPA Computer Network, the relationship between cost and throughput in store-and-forward networks and the optimization of the growth of the ARPA Network. The approach to the reliability problem is to combine analytical and combinatorial results with simulation schemes to obtain several powerful procedures for reliability analysis. These procedures are then used to evaluate ARPA Network reliability....

Topics: DTIC Archive, Frank, Howard, NETWORK ANALYSIS CORP GREAT NECK NY, *DATA PROCESSING EQUIPMENT,...

During this contracting period 4,246 documents were processed from which 11,316 cards were keypunched. Currently, there are 121,459 supporting records on punched cards which permit computer searches to be conducted for citation to 43,574 specific machining situations coded on MDC's documents. 807 specific inquiries were answered for 398 different organizations representing 517 individuals. Since the Center's operation began in October 1964 a total of 6,546 specific inquiries have been...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Snider, Robert E, MACHINABILITY DATA CENTER CINCINNATI OH, *MACHINING, COST...

The development of new and improved manufacturing methods, controls, equipment and processes was directed toward the generation of methacrylic acid- grafted- polyethylene film for use as a superior alkaline battery separator material. This material is of interest to the Air Force as a means of significantly increasing the life and performance of secondary nickel-cadmium and silver-zinc alkaline aircraft batteries and thus accomplish meaningful cost savings. Technology was developed to permit...

Topics: DTIC Archive, D'Agostino, Vincent, RAI RESEARCH CORP HAUPPAUGE NY, *ALKALINE BATTERIES, FILMS, COST...

A statistical procedure for determining the resolution to be used in spectral-matrix estimation is needed for the exploratory analysis of non- stationary multiple time series. The procedure accomplished this by creating periodograms for a frequency-time interval and then successively dividing this interval into subintervals. At each step, the division is chosen by comparing spectral matrices using the largest-root statistic. This multiple-decision rule is shown to be consistent. Small-sample...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Liggett, Jr, Walter S, RAYTHEON CO PORTSMOUTH RI SUBMARINE SIGNAL DIV, *TIME SERIES...

The exceptional utility and performance of the sequential, linear, unbiased, minimum variance estimator suffers severely in the presence of dynamic model errors. This problem--perhaps the greatest detriment to the so-called Kalman filter algorithm--is discussed in the light of its divergent effect upon the estimation process. A number of optimal and suboptimal modifying techniques are described which attempt to prevent this divergence. Extensions are developed resulting in adaptive forms and a...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Hagar, Jr, Hamilton, TEXAS UNIV AT AUSTIN APPLIED MECHANICS RESEARCH LAB,...

Expected value functions as functions of decisions and decision strategies are flat around their maxima. This so called flat maximum phenomenon has been discovered in sensitivity analyses in virtually all decision theoretic paradigms. But until now most of the research on flat maxima explored more or less general examples and limiting considerations. Two basic questions remained unanswered: what are the mathematical reasons for the restricted shape of the evaluation functions; and can these...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Winterfeldt, Detlof V, MICHIGAN UNIV ANN ARBOR ENGINEERING PSYCHOLOGY LAB, *DECISION...

The general normative model of expectation maximization is outlined, and criticized for several reasons. It may not be appropriate as a normative model in a variety of situations where it is assumed to be rational. Some of its conditions, e.g., independence of evaluation-of-aspects and probability- revision cues, and correctness of the simple additive utility model, may not be met. Moreover, deterministic models may be too strong to predict human behavior properly. Perhaps they should be...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Wendt, Dirk, MICHIGAN UNIV ANN ARBOR ENGINEERING PSYCHOLOGY LAB, *DECISION MAKING,...

The report re-analyses data from five studies concerned with methods for eliciting judgments about uncertain events. It focuses on response modes, such as odds, likelihood ratios, etc.: whether or not the response required the subject to aggregate items of data in his head; whether the scale on which the response was made logarithmic or linear; and whether the subject received additional feedback about the implications of his estimates in the course of making them.

Topics: DTIC Archive, Goodman, Barbara C, MICHIGAN UNIV ANN ARBOR ENGINEERING PSYCHOLOGY LAB, *BAYES...

Maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters lambda and mu of a simple (linear) birth-and-death process observed continuously over a fixed time interval is studied. Asymptotic distributions for large initial populations and for large periods of observation are derived and some nonstandard results appear. The related problem of estimation from the discrete skeleton of the process is also discussed.

Topics: DTIC Archive, Keiding, Niels, STANFORD UNIV CA DEPT OF STATISTICS, *STOCHASTIC PROCESSES,...

The problem considered is the estimation of the parameters in the mixed model of the analysis of variance, assuming normality of the random effects and errors. Both asymptotic properties of such estimates as the size of the design increases and numerical procedures for their calculation are discussed. Estimation is carried out by the method of maximum likelihood. It is shown that there is a sequence of roots of the likelihood equations which is consistent, asymptotically normal and...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Miller, John James, STANFORD UNIV CA DEPT OF STATISTICS, *ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE,...